Louisiana Electric Vehicle Registration Predictions
Posted by Clean Fuels Intern on Mar. 22, 2023 / Electric Vehicles / Subscribe 0
Written by: Elizabeth Linehan
Of the 50 US states, Louisiana ranks #39 in Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption (Electrik, 2022), making up only 0.25% of all EV sales in the country. Louisiana also has a significantly lower than average EV registration per capita.
New registration data for EVs was released recently, and as of the end of 2022 there were 4,714 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and 2,436 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in Louisiana.
- BEV Average growth rate per year: 53%
- PHEV Average growth rate per year: 31%
- Total growth in EV registrations since 2017 for all plugins: +486.07%
When this data is graphed out, the exponential nature of the growth is evident, supported by the exponential function and R2=0.998; conveying the exponential fit of the trendline is 99.8% accurate to the data presented.
BEV registrations= 590e0.416(x-2017)
R2=0.998
*in which (x) is the year in question
This function allows us to anticipate future growth in Louisiana as well assuming no plateau in the near future. With the additional EVSE infrastructure and funding, a plateau is not expected. This is further supported by the fact EV sales continued to increase during the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic, when a majority of industries saw strong decreases in sales.
The function predicts the following data BEV count in Louisiana until 2035:
By 2035, it is expected over 1 million BEVs will be registered in Louisiana. In 2021 there were 1,279,501 registered public and private vehicles in Louisiana, this number is expected to grow through 2035, however, over a million electric vehicles will still represent a large proportion. These predictions were made with only the BEV data because they are anticipated to overtake the PHEV market, as BEV technology increases and PHEV popularity decreases.
In early 2020, predictions were made by LCF based on Bloomberg data on EV ownership in Louisiana impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. These numbers include both BEVs and PHEVs. It was anticipated that EV sales would drop over 20% globally and take over 20 years to bounce back to near expected values.
The predicted values are much higher than the previous predictions due to the inclusion of PHEVs. As can be seen, the true rate of EV ownership in Louisianas is noticeably higher than the predicted values in both scenarios. This showcases that electrification in Louisiana is growing at an unforeseen rate, possibly due to the advancements in infrastructure in place, and that are still to come. To learn more about the advancements in EV infrastructure, check here.
0 Comments